32. Cleveland Browns - Jason Campbell / Brandon Weeden / Brian Hoyer
This QB situation is the definition of a debacle in the Ohio city near Lake Erie. They started the year with some shaky thoughts on Brandon Weeden and how he'd perform. Once he was injured, Brian Hoyer led them on a 3-game winning streak and even made me somewhat of a believer that they could contend in a weak AFC for the No. 6 seed. Once Hoyer went down, Jason Campbell stepped in and performed averagely. Now the Browns look to the future and they're going to have to take a shot on a QB with a Top-5 pick. My issue - I'm not sure how well any of these QBs will survive in Cleveland when they're getting bashed by defensive ends and linebackers each week. Both Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater lack the girth that I'd like to see from an NFL QB. It looks like the Browns will once again slum through the sludge of mediocrity and ineptitude.
31. Oakland Raiders - Terrelle Pryor / Matt McGloin
If things weren't absolutely terrible in Cleveland, let's visit Oakland for even more dysfunction. The battle of two Big-10 QBs who did little to impress me or give me hope for their NFL futures. McGloin is a fighter and an over-comer who has never been picked for anything. Seriously. I don't think he was picked in gym class for dodgeball in 8th grade. He walked on at Happy Valley, went undrafted to the Raiders and sat behind Pryor and Matt Flynn until Flynn flew away and Pryor got hurt. Now, the Raiders have to choose between athletic or average at the QB position. Maybe that No. 5 pick will be used to take a QB, I think they'd be better off playing a different sport, though.
30. Minnesota Vikings - Matt Cassel / Christian Ponder / Josh Freeman
I'm beginning to see a trend through the teams that were bad this season: more than one QB started. A fall from grace was expected from the Vikings this season, they somehow went 10-6 and made the playoffs last season...oh that's right, AP nearly broke the NFL rushing record. This season, a slow start, a family tragedy and injury led to AP barely eclipsing 1,200 yards rushing. With no running back to rely on, the carousel wound up and churned out bad performances all around. Cassel would be my choice for next season. Give up on Ponder and Freeman and bring in a young QB with some potential. Let him sit for a year behind Cassel and then polish him to fit into the system. I'd personally take someone like A.J. McCarron in the 2nd round. He's a winner and solid playmaker, sometimes that's what you need more than the sexy pick.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Chad Henne / Blaine Gabbert
Please don't select Johnny Manziel. That's all I ask from Jacksonville. They're better off taking Tebow. Honestly, I don't care what Jacksonville does. I think they're the most pointless team in the NFL. They should hire someone who has a background with a moving company. Get someone who knows how to pack up a semi that'll help them move to LA or London or Toronto or wherever the NFL sends them because the franchise in Jacksonville isn't working out. On a serious note about QBs, I think Henne will be a fine fit for getting 4 wins next season.
28. New York Jets - Geno Smith
There was a stretch where I had a better QBR than Geno Smith this season. That's barely a joke. He had 12 TDs and 21 INTs in his rookie campaign. There was a span where he had 4 straight games with less than 10 completions (8,8,9,4). That's a total of 29 completions over a 4 game period. Peyton Manning had 7 games this season where he completed 29 or more passes. To Smith's defense, the Jets have the worst offensive talent I have seen in years. If the Jets decide to draft a couple good talents at WR and TE then Geno might actually have reason to complete 29 passes in a game instead of in a quarter of the season.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Mike Glennon
Greg Schiano seemed to think that Glennon had the potential to be the QB of the future but none of that matters now. Lovie Smith is now the head coach with the Bucs and the rest of the management around him is shaken up as well. Glennon looked solid at times once he got comfortable in the offense and had no issue slinging the ball all over the field. I'm not sure he has the intangibles to be a franchise guy and Lovie Smith definitely isn't going to help him improve on that. If Glennon takes care of the ball, Tampa could win 7-8 games next season, but who knows if he'll be the commander guiding the ship for the Bucs.
26. Houston Texans - Matt Schaub / Case Keenum
The chaos in Houston is more of an issue than the talent at the QB position. Keenum and Schaub both have some raw talent that is higher than 26th best in the NFL. The issue is that the team spiraled out of control and once they hit about 2-6, it was pretty obvious they wouldn't win another game this season. I don't see how Matt Schaub can come back and i'm excited to see how Bill O'Brien evaluates Case Keenum as his franchise talent.
25. Tennessee Titans - Jake Locker / Ryan Fitzpatrick
My prediction is that if Jake Locker stayed healthy all season then they'd be the No. 6 seed instead of San Diego. That's the issue, though. I'm not sure how durable Jake Locker is. Locker, Ponder and Sam Bradford all feel like the same QB to me. They have B-quality abilities, can make some plays, but seem to be injury prone. Overall, I wouldn't put any money on Jake Locker to take the Titans anywhere beyond a No. 6 seed in a shaky AFC.
24. St. Louis Rams - Sam Bradford / Kellen Clemens
(See 25). Seriously, Sam Bradford and Jake Locker tie for 25th in my book. They both are capable of doing exactly the same thing. They're quality talents but they're nowhere near the top of the NFL. The reason St. Louis is above Tennessee is because the Rams are a serious contender if they could get a healthy QB that took care of the ball.
23. Washington Redskins - Robert Griffin III / Kirk Cousins
Thank you for visiting the infirmary section of our blog today. We will soon be leaving the Dr. James Andrews section and talking about teams with quality professional QBs who don't get hurt every season. First, let's talk about RGIII. His talent is B+ to A-. If he wasn't injury prone I would put him up in the Top-15, breaching on Top-10. That isn't the case, however. RGIII was hurt in college, hurt as a rookie and never fully recovered. He sat out the final three games this season and will have a new coach to sabotage in 2014. The Redskins gave up way too much to get Griffin and it's going to hurt them in the future. Then they decided to pick Kirk Cousins in the same draft as his back-up. What a mess the Redskins are. On the plus side, the salary cap fines are done for Washington and they can fill in some pieces around Griffin. It's worth seeing what Griffin can do if he's healthy next season, which is all we can hope for.
22. Arizona Cardinals - Carson Palmer
It's time to start looking toward the future Arizona. Carson Palmer played plenty well enough this season to get the Cardinals the 5th best record in the NFC but Seattle and San Francisco ruined a playoff spot for the Cards. While this was a nice season for Arizona, Carson Palmer is past his prime. He isn't going to ascend your team to new heights, he's going to give you 1-2 more seasons of solid play but that's all he has left. He isn't going to pull a Kurt Warner and get you to the Super Bowl, but another 10-6 season will have the Cards right there for a No. 6 seed in 2014. I'd draft a 2nd to 4th round QB, maybe a Tajh Boyd or Aaron Murray to sculpt behind Palmer for a season or two.
21. Buffalo Bills - E.J. Manuel
He was a bit too injured in his rookie season and that worries me. His talent and resiliency seem top-notch and if he can get healthy and continue to grow, he'll breach the Top-15 in a few years. The Bills have some pieces that need to be improved to make it above mundane and average but Manuel has the traits. If he can be developed similarly to how Cam Newton has been groomed in Carolina, then the Bills could make some noise in the next few years. Get E.J. healthy and prepare for 2014 Buffalo.
20. Miami Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill
I might be selling Tannehill short at No. 20, but if I do this list again next season, he'll be closer to 15 than 25. He is a better version of Locker/Ponder/Bradford and through a year of insanity in Miami posted decent numbers. He had almost 4,000 yards and posted 24 TDs to 17 INTs. Those numbers should improve next season to something like 28 TDs and 12 INTs. Those numbers would be good enough to compete for a Wild Card spot if the rest of the team performs around him. Don't sell Tannehill short, he might be the 6th best QB drafted in the past 2 seasons, which is better than a good portion of the league.
19. San Diego Chargers - Phillip Rivers
It's not how you start, it's how you finish. The Chargers know that statement better than almost anyone. Over the past several seasons they've notoriously been the 7-3 team that misses the playoffs. This season they're the 5-7 team that makes the playoffs. Rivers has been curious, to say the least, with cases of fumblitis and the interception over the past few seasons but 32 TDs, 11 INTs and a 105.5 passer rating is what the fans of San Diego have been waiting for since 2008.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Andy Dalton
Will the real Andy Dalton please appear in a stadium outside of Cincinnati? Or maybe, has the real Andy Dalton appeared outside of Cincinnati? If Dalton is going to ascend to elite levels then we need to see consistency. He's been great in Cincinnati with an undefeated record this season but away from home struggles have ensued. Throwing 20 INTs in 2013 is a bit much and to be elite he needs to get that number into the low teens. If Dalton can run off 3 great games then the Bengals could be Super Bowl bound. If Dalton lays an egg against San Diego then many of us will question him even stronger than we have so far.
17. Kansas City Chiefs - Alex Smith
They say he doesn't have the NFL caliber arm, they say he doesn't make the throws necessary to be elite, San Francisco sent him out of town for a kid who struggles to make reads, and yet he keeps winning. Alex Smith helped a team go from 2 to 11 wins. He did it with an 89.1 passer rating and a 23-7 TD to INT ratio. I'll take those numbers. Those are numbers that can win a Super Bowl if your defense and running game help guide the troops. Then why is Alex Smith at 17 on this list? Well, it's a mix of where your ceiling is at and what have you done in the past. Maybe you don't remember, but until Jim Harbaugh came to town, Alex Smith was all but written off as an NFL bust. He's had a great season of not being asked to do too much for KC and he's had success. Alex Smith is pretty much at his pinnacle, though. He's reached the peak of his talent. It's good enough to win a Super Bowl in a Trent Dilfer-type way. We'll see if KC can make it happen this season.
16. Philadelphia Eagles - Nick Foles
Speaking of taking care of the ball and doing what your team needs to get the job done, please visit exhibit A. Nick Foles posted the 2nd best passer rating in NFL history. He threw 27 TDs to only 2 INTs. That's an absurd 13.5:1 ratio. Peyton Manning had a 5.5:1 ratio and he's going to win the MVP. Chip Kelly looks like a genius from how well the Eagles have played on offense and Nick Foles should have a nice career if he can stay with Chip for 5-6 seasons and come anywhere close to this production.
15. Atlanta Falcons - Matt Ryan
Let's write this season off as an anomaly for Matt Ryan. He still had an 89.6 passer rating and 26 TDs but the 17 INTs were a bit high for what we expect from Ryan. The injuries to Roddy White and Julio Jones didn't help but something was never there this season with Atlanta. I'm not sure if the Falcons will return next season and run off 13 wins but they should definitely be competitive with 8-10. Matt Ryan dropped some stock for me but if he returns to form, he'll be somewhere around No. 11 next season.
14. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford
Why can't Detroit be successful? Seriously, that isn't one of those questions I'm going to answer for you. I don't understand how you can have a QB that has a rocket attached to his arm that fires footballs to a machine of a wide receiver named Megatron (Calvin Johnson), with a defensive line that should get 80 sacks per season. Enough about the struggles of Detroit, actually, I think Detroit is at fault for why Stafford is only 14th on my list. He has all of the tools but doesn't quite understand his craft. That's the best way I can put it. He's ready to build a house but I don't think he knows exactly how to make one that'll withstand a storm. Too many years as a Detroit Lion will do that to you, though.
13. San Francisco 49ers - Colin Kaepernick
After last season ended, the media was ready to anoint Kaepernick as the new savior of football. I still haven't been sold on Kaepernick's abilities from the pocket. The reason he makes the Top-15 is because of his ceiling. He has the raw ability to dominate the field with his legs and strength. That last line is something I should be saying about a running back, not a QB. If Kaepernick can figure out how to read a defense more effectively and get beyond his first option, then he can be a transcendent talent. He might be able to make it to back-to-back Super Bowls and even win this one, but it won't be because he carried the team in a Peyton Manning or Tom Brady manner, it'll be because the defense causes havoc against Green Bay, Carolina and Seattle.
12. Baltimore Ravens - Joe Flacco
He had a year that wasn't quite on the level of a brand new shiny, Top-3 salary but he has a clutch "gene" that always seems to find a way to win. The Ravens fielded a brand new defense this season that struggled early, the running game was nonexistent because of Ray Rice's injuries, and that put Flacco in a hole where he had to toss the ball all over the field so he wouldn't get sacked 18 times a game. This was one of Flacco's worst seasons, he had a 19:22 TD-INT ratio, the most INTs in his career by 10, and least TDs since his rookie season. Flacco has been solid and clutch throughout his career and this year will be marked as an outlier.
11. New York Giants - Eli Manning
You're probably asking how Eli Manning can be anywhere near 10th after the season he had. It goes back to the what you've done and what you have in the future. Eli has won 2 Super Bowls and was a 4th Quarter, 2 Minute Drill machine the past several seasons. While Eli has never been a guy to get through a season with only 8 INTs, he has always had a positive ratio. This is the first season that ratio was negative. Much like Flacco, Eli had issues with a bad offensive line and poor running attack. The Giants will get those fixed and Eli's numbers will flip back to 27 TDs and 18 INTs instead of the opposite.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ben Roethlisberger
Mr. Past His Prime is still a Top-10 QB because of his past. He's accomplished amazing things in Pittsburgh. He makes plays that he has no business making but now his capability to make those plays is behind him. He's relying more on being a quick pocket passer. He's been efficient at it, but he isn't a dominating force anymore. He passed for 4,200 yards, 28 TDs and 14 INTs, and after a horrendous start, the Steelers almost made the playoffs. The legacy and aura in Pittsburgh is winning and Big Ben has done that since 2004. He's closer to the end than the beginning, but 3-4 solid years still remain for Roethlisberger.
9. Chicago Bears - Jay Cutler
Mr. New Contract is ready to turn some heads. Yes, he's 30 years old. Yes, he's only won one playoff game and one game against the Packers. Yes, he's cocky, arrogant and a bit of a cry baby. But, he has the QB whisperer guiding him along the way. He had his best passer rating of his career, and threw as many TDs this season in 11 games as he did in 15 last season. With a monster contract in his pocket and people questioning if he's worth it, Cutler will be hellbent on proving that he's a Top-10 QB and can win playoff games and a Super Bowl. His arms a rocket and his weapons are real. Alshon Jeffrey, Martellus Bennett and Brandon Marshall are capable of making Cutler look even better than he actually is, and that's something the NFL should fear.
8. Dallas Cowboys - Tony Romo
This is an No. 8 ranking, pending a back surgery that could ruin him ever being the QB he was again. If Romo makes a full recovery and doesn't have this lingering back problem then he'll be a Top-10 QB in this league for years. Nobody gives Romo the credit he deserves for being astounding 98% of the time because when there are 2 minutes left, he makes a vital mistake. My theory - Romo is the sanity in the asylum. Dallas is managed horribly. Jerry Jones is a great owner, not a great GM. So, when Romo has to do everything all game some mistakes are going to happen. I'm not sure if Romo will ever break out of this mold because I don't think Dallas will ever be run well enough to show Romo's full potential.
7. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton
Last year I would have placed Cam around 15th on this list. He was trying too hard for the first 12 weeks of 2012 and when it started to click late, they turned it on. Since then, Carolina has been fantastic. He regressed a bit in the first few games this season but finally bought into the system and realized he didn't have to do it all. Since he's learned his place in the offense, he's been amazing. The defense is good enough to give them a chance to beat anyone and Cam has the highest ceiling in the league. Every week, Cam makes a few plays that make you think he's a superhero. In a structured environment where he takes care of the ball then shows those moments of excellence, the Panthers can achieve great heights.
6. New Orleans Saints - Drew Brees
All this guy does is throw for 5,000+ yards. While Peyton Manning is over there breaking his record by 1-yard, he's saying, "that's fine, I've done it 4 times." Size doesn't matter because Brees throws one of the prettiest passes I've ever seen. He's a Super Bowl champ and one of the best passers in NFL history. His 51,081 yards ranks 5th all-time and at 33 years old, another 4-5 seasons of 4,500+ yards will place him 2nd or 3rd on the list. The reason he's not 2nd or 3rd on my list is because there is a bit more future-casting involved that puts these next two guys in front of him.
5. Seattle Seahawks - Russell Wilson
I've been talking about what you've done for me and what you're doing in the future and in this case, the latter outweighs the former. A few years ago when Wilson was at Wisconsin, I watched one of his games with my college roommate and marveled at his ability. He never gets rattled. He always knows what to do and keeps his eyes downfield. He progresses through his options and rarely makes a bad decision. A 26:9 TD-INT ratio and a 101.2 passer rating makes him one of the most consistent QBs in the league. He doesn't have to throw 50 times a game, put up 4,800 yards in a season and throw 50 TDs to be successful. He makes smart plays that help his team be successful. He has one of the brightest futures of any player currently in this league.
4. Indianapolis Colts - Andrew Luck
Speaking of young kids with bright futures, meet Andrew Luck. From day one in the NFL, he's looked like a 5 year pro. He has no fear about being the leader and taking all the blame for what he does. He's extremely cerebral and has such a high IQ. He is everything that Indianapolis could hope for. They got Peyton Manning in 1998, he got injured and old, so what happens...they get a young guy named Andrew Luck who can do everything Manning did but will be in the league until 2025 instead of 2015. Like Wilson, he put together a great TD-INT ratio at 23:9. Luck and Wilson have the opportunity to run this league into the 2020s and I have all the faith that they will.
3. Green Bay Packers - Aaron Rodgers
Something that never happens anymore was the best thing that ever happened to Aaron Rodgers. He sat behind Brett Favre for 3 seasons before being handed the reins. Since that time he has proven to be one of the best all-around QBs to ever grace a football field. He plays with a chip on his shoulder because he's done a lot of waiting in his life: from being passed over by team after team in the draft, then hanging out behind Favre for 3 seasons, all help Rodgers be the player he is. I think he has the best mix of skills at the QB position in the NFL today. He can throw the ball wherever needed, make the adjustments necessary, and breakdown a defense effectively. Even though he missed a large chunk of football this season, don't be surprised if he gets those extra reps in the playoffs by playing into mid or late January.
2. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning
Is there anything else to say about Peyton Manning that hasn't already been said? Actually, I have quite a lot to say about Peyton Manning. I hold all judgment for him on how he plays over the next month. I know he can throw for almost 5,500 yards, 55 TDs and a 115.1 passer rating. That's all great. He studies the game every minute like someone is going to take the information away from him if he doesn't absorb it constantly. When he's on the field he always makes the adjustments to succeed...unless it's 20 degrees and windy. Then he loses to the Patriots. Statistically, Peyton Manning is the best QB to ever grace the field. He is a fantasy football gem. Seriously, I think every fantasy football team that had Peyton Manning this season won their league. That isn't what really matters, though. But, Peyton knows that. He puts up the pretty numbers and places his name in all the record books but his kryptonite is the fact that he is playing in the era of Brady. He throws 5 more TDs in a season than Brady's best and 252 more yards this season than in Brady's best year but that doesn't matter. Brady has 3 rings to Manning's 1 and Brady has owned Peyton in head to head battles, 10 to 4.
1. New England Patriots - Tom Brady
Here is why Tom Brady is ahead of Peyton Manning. Tom Brady is 17-7 in the playoffs. Manning is 9-11 with eight one-and-down losses. Brady has 3 Super Bowl rings and if not for two amazing catches by Giants' receivers, he'd have 5. We won't focus on what could have been though. We'll focus on what is. Brady started full time in 2001, he's averaged 27.6 TDs per season, Manning has 30.8. Interceptions: Brady -10.6 per season, Manning -13.3. Career Passer Rating: Brady - 95.7, Manning - 97.2. You're probably looking at these numbers and saying, "Brady isn't putting up better numbers in these categories, why is he better?" He's better because their stats are so close but when the two QBs end up on the same field against each other, Brady finds a way to win 72% of the time. I know it's a team sport and there are 21 other guys starting for each team that contribute to success but while Brady's style helps to improve and exalt the team to new heights, Manning boosts the offense to another level and watches his defense get softer and weaker each game. Manning might go down as the second best QB of all-time but he'll be second behind Tom Brady. Brady doesn't need another Super Bowl ring, passing TD, or playoff win, he's locked it up in my book. Brady isn't only the best QB in the league right now but the best QB to ever play.
Added Fun - Playoff Predictions - Wild Card Week
Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts
A rematch of a Week 16 beatdown by the Colts is expected to be a toss-up this time around. The Chiefs made major mistakes in that matchup and lost the turnover battle but I wouldn't put it past Andy Reid that he knew there was a good chance these two teams would play again this week and kept some tricks up his sleeve. If you look at my QB matchup, its' my No. 4 guy Andrew Luck against No. 17 Alex Smith. The plus for Smith is that he's extremely consistent. If the Chiefs defense could force a turnover early and get a 10 to 14 point lead then I'm all in for Smith managing the game and getting the Chiefs a win. If it comes down to a tie game in the 4th quarter, I'm putting all my chips in on Luck to make the big plays down the stretch.
Prediction: Colts 27, Chiefs 24
New Orleans Saints vs Philadelphia Eagles
The Saints haven't been the same on the road but they've played tough defenses in their 3 latest home losses. Philly doesn't have a stout defense. Philly is going to have to score early and often to win this one. They'll rely on LeSean McCoy and ball control to take away possessions from the Saints. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility for the Eagles to win this game but the Saints are the better team on paper. Drew Brees has so many targets on offense and it'll be hard for the worst defense in the playoffs to stop him. Chip Kelly has been a master this season on offense and winning this game will depend on his offense being his defense. It doesn't look like it will be enough, unless that arctic blast gets to Philly from Green Bay and freezes the Saints offense.
Prediction: Saints 34, Eagles 28
San Diego Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals
The Chargers have finally finished a season properly. They've had so many struggles of completely falling apart down the stretch, they've won 4 straight to make the playoffs but I think this will be a short lived celebration. The Bengals have dominated teams at home this season. They haven't played cupcakes at home, either. They broke Tom Brady's streak of consecutive games with a TD pass and beat the Pats. They defeated the Packers early in the season when Rodgers was healthy. And they shredded the Colts, 42-28, a few weeks ago. If there is one game this weekend that'll let us down, it'll be this one. The playoff excitement for San Diego will be over quickly.
Prediction: Bengals 31, Chargers 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Green Bay Packers
Here's a quick message from the national weather service. It'll be -5 degrees air temperature at game start. The temperature will then drop throughout the game to a low of -18. Once the wind chill is factored in the temperature will feel like -25 to -35 degrees. You know what the record low in San Francisco is for January? 32 degrees. That's close to the record high for Green Bay in January. We're talking about two very different worlds colliding in Wisconsin. On paper the 49ers are head and shoulders above the Packers but a few game changers reside on the Packers that could alter this outcome greatly. This game is the hardest one for me to figure out because it's hard to predict how the weather will affect San Francisco. I'm going to say this will be a sloppy, hard fought game.
Prediction: 49ers 19, Packers 17
