Thursday, March 5, 2015

NHL Predictions: After the Trade Deadline

By: Tim Durr

A few days after Monday's trade deadline, the final 1/4 of the NHL season has officially started. We've given analysis of the moves on the podcast with a special NHL deadline edition and opened Tuesday's show with more discussion about the final deals that came in Monday night.

Now, I've decided to dive into some predictions for the final stretch of the regular season and playoffs.

First let's look at the current standings and then check out my predictions for how the remainder of the season will turn out.   Green shows improvement, Red shows decline. (X) = would miss the playoffs

                  Current Standings                              Future Predictions



ATLANTIC
W
L
64
41
18
5
87
65
39
20
6
84
62
36
15
11
83
62
31
22
9
71
64
28
23
13
69
62
28
23
11
67
64
26
33
5
57
64
19
40
5
43
METROPOLITAN
W
L
63
39
17
7
85
65
41
21
3
85
63
36
18
9
81
65
35
20
10
80
64
27
25
12
66
64
27
27
10
64
63
26
33
4
56
62
24
31
7
55
CENTRAL
W
L
65
41
17
7
89
63
40
18
5
85
64
38
21
5
81
65
32
21
12
76
63
34
22
7
75
64
28
25
11
67
64
28
26
10
66
PACIFIC
W
L
66
42
17
7
91
63
36
24
3
75
63
34
25
4
72
63
30
21
12
72
65
32
25
8
72
64
20
37
7
47
64
18
36
10
46
ATLANTIC
W
L
Detroit
82
49
20
13
111
Montreal
82
52
23
7
109
Tampa Bay
82
49
25
8
106
Florida
82
37
32
13
87
Boston (X)
82
37
34
11
85
Ottawa (X)
82
33
36
13
79
Toronto (X)
82
30
46
6
66
Buffalo (X)
82
23
52
7
53
METROPOLITAN
W
L
NY Rangers
82
51
23
8
110
Washington
82
46
25
11
103
Pittsburgh
82
46
25
11
103
NY Islanders
82
49
29
4
102
Philadelphia (X)
82
35
33
14
84
New Jersey (X)
82
32
36
12
76
Columbus (X)
 82
31
45
6
68
Carolina (X)
82
28
45
9
65
CENTRAL
W
L
St. Louis
82
51
25
7
109
Nashville
82
49
24
9
107
Chicago
82
48
27
7
103
Minnesota
82
41
31
10
91
Winnipeg
82
38
31
13
89
Colorado (X)
82
35
33
14
84
Dallas (X)
82
33
37
12
78
PACIFIC
W
L
Anaheim
82
52
22
8
112
Vancouver
82
44
33
5
93
Los Angeles
82
39
28
15
93
San Jose (X)
82
39
33
10
88
Calgary (X)
82
40
36
6
86
Arizona (X)
82
23
50
9
55
Edmonton (X)
82
22
47
13
55










































If the season plays out how I predicted it will, here is what the playoff matchups would look like:

Eastern Conference

1. Detroit Red Wings vs. 8. Florida Panthers (Red Wings in 6)
2. New York Rangers vs. 7. New York Islanders (Rangers in 7)

Metropolitan 
2. Washington Capitals vs. 3. Pittsburgh Penguins (Penguins in 6)

Atlantic
2. Montreal Canadiens vs. 3. Tampa Bay Lightning (Lightning in 5)

Conference Semi-Finals
1. Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (Red Wings in 7)
2. New York Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (Rangers in 5)

Conference Finals
1. Detroit Red Wings vs. New York Rangers (Rangers in 6)

Western Conference

1. Anaheim Ducks vs. 8. Winnipeg Jets (Ducks in 5)
2. St. Louis Blues vs. 7. Minnesota Wild (Blues in 4)

Pacific
2. Vancouver Canucks vs. 3. Los Angeles Kings (Kings in 6)

Central
2. Nashville Predators vs. 3. Chicago Blackhawks (Blackhawks in 7)

Conference Semi-Finals
1. Anaheim Ducks vs. Los Angeles Kings (Ducks in 6)
2. St. Louis Blues vs. Chicago Blackhawks (Blues in 7)

Conference Finals 
1. Anaheim Ducks vs St. Louis Blues (Blues in 6)

Stanley Cup Final

New York Rangers vs. St. Louis Blues (Rangers in 6) 


P.S. Jon didn't hold a gun to my head and tell me to write this either. The trade for Keith Yandle improves the play of a team that has already been one of the best in the second half of the season and I'm predicting they'll get their first Stanley Cup since 1994. 








Thursday, January 29, 2015

Beast Mode on the Media

Marshawn Lynch at Media Day for Super Bowl XLIX - Courtesy of CNN.com

By: Tim Durr

The media and Marshawn Lynch have been in a battle over him answering questions for over a calendar year. He has stood there silently, repeated one phrase 29 times, and largely spat in the face of the media and the NFL's attempts to force him to talk to them.

Today, Marshawn Lynch finally uttered more than six or seven words over and over again. And, what he did say was a checkmate to the culture that sports journalism now operates under.

After a diatribe toward the media, Marshawn simply ended the statement claiming that the media must be mad at him. If they weren't, why else would they be there asking him the same question over and over?

Initially, I was mad at him. How hard it is to answer some simple questions. Then, I thought...what would he say? It surely would be a canned answer that simply said all he wants to do is focus on football. With Marshawn Lynch, that's probably the truest answer, though.

Before today, my thought was to set up a standoff with him. Get him in the media room and stare at him without saying anything. Wait him out until he asked what everyone was doing to try to flip it on him and get a response. That changed when he spoke today.

His response about not understanding what the media is trying to get from him was eye-opening.

"And for some reason, y'all continue to come back and do the same thing that y'all did," Lynch said to the media Thursday in his opening statements. "I don't know what kind of story y'all are trying to get out of me. I don't know what kind of image y'all are trying to portray of me. But it don't matter what y'all think."

Those words bring up the point of where we are in media and what we are looking for. When asking good questions, we expect to receive good answers. We take classes and learn techniques of how to evoke the most emotion and information out of sources - when done correctly, a beautiful story can be told. We're far from that in most press conferences today, though. I hear so many poorly worded questions or statements with an inflection hoping for an answer.

The media is outnumbered 4-to-1 by public relations personnel who train and groom athletes to answer with canned information that says little. The coaches preach to players what to give away and what not to say, and it leads to a world of double-thinking athletes who carefully sculpt every sentence because they don't want to get yelled at for saying "bulletin board" material.

If Marshawn Lynch doesn't have anything unique, thoughtful, or evocative to say to the media, then we don't need to talk to him. He doesn't want to open up and talk to us and if he did then he alluded that all he would say was the same canned information that everyone else gives.

"I'm here preparing for a game and y'all want to ask me all these questions." Lynch continued as reporters yelled out questions. "Which is understandable, I could get down with that. But, I told y'all, I'm not about to say nothing."

That is where we're at with so much of our media today. It's a battle for someone to say something, which is actually nothing. As a journalist, you need to have sources in your article. You need soundbites for your newscast, you need a character for your story. The PR department of the NFL team doesn't want anyone to be cast in a negative light so you hear the same boring, repetitive comments about wanting to win, focusing on the task at hand, and the "I'm only concerned with playing team X on Sunday."

None of those add depth or shed light on aspects of the game. It doesn't give us a deeper understanding of who the person is. We don't get to see what is truly going on with the team, player, or organization. It has become more and more scarce to hear great quotes in a press conference before or after a game. Is that the fault of the journalists? Partially. It's more so an attribution to the amount of time and money paid to media relations employees to sculpt players into robots who only say the best possible answer when being interviewed.

Marshawn Lynch showed us what is wrong with the relationship between media and athletes today. It isn't authentic. There isn't an attempt by the media to gain information, to...you know...inform readers. There is a pursuit of click-bait, cheap headlines, and fake or overblown controversies. It's a response to the sheltered athletes who give canned responses. It's the result of hearing the same boring quotes and when someone finally gives a unique answer, it is blown up into a controversy or a "you won't believe Tom Brady's response when asked..." It's bush league and cheap.

The media relations of professional sports teams and reporters at-large, are fighting a war with the wrong weapons and heading in the wrong directions. The attempts from most are to piss each other off. The attempt should be to work together. It should be to help the media accurately tell the story of your franchise without threatening credentials or withholding players from speaking. The response by the media should be to accurately report stories and search for interesting information to give readers, both good and bad.

The excessive coverage of Marshawn Lynch not saying anything and of the controversy in New England with footballs being improperly inflated has ruined my excitement for Super Bowl XLIX. I'm tired of every athlete on every show being asked about both topics. I'm tired of headlines and articles being written solely on the response of some ex-athlete to some other ex-athlete.

If this is the business that journalists and media professionals live in and deal with...then I don't want to be a part of the circus. A statement of advice - ask questions that are thoughtful and open-ended. Frame them well and don't ask questions that are double-barreled, leading, or long winded. If we start there and stop trying to get a soundbite to paint someone red-handed, then maybe the other side will start to back off their restraints and excessive coaching to allow players to give real insight.

Even with all of that, they still might tell you, "I'm not about to say nothing."

Friday, November 7, 2014

Nate Kadah: A Second Chance at a Sport He Loves

By: Jonathan Kahn 

"Ever since I can remember" - that's what Syracuse University Linebacker Nate Kadah said was when football became a part of his life. Now Kadah is a Freshman walk-on on a division I football team.

It was just a few years ago that football seemed to be the furthest thing from his mind. Kadah, a standout on a talented Fayetteville-Manlius squad, was cruising into his senior season with his goal of playing college football dead in his sight. But, tragedy stuck when his father was diagnosed with brain cancer. 

"My dad passed away from brain cancer in February of 2013," Kadah said. "My mom kind of needed me close to home, so I needed to help her." 

Nate had to step away from football, the sport he loved. Kadah spent the next year at LeMoyne College in Syracuse. 

"I needed to go to LeMoyne where they don't have football," Kadah said. "And, get my life straight again."

He may not have had the pads on but football was still very much on Kadah's mind. Just a few miles away from his future team he still followed the Orange and the rest of college football.

"I was dying to get back to football," Kadah said. "I would see how my buddies were doing with sports. I was just dying to get back on the field."



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Thursday, November 6, 2014

The Passage of Time: A Sports Perspective

By: Tim Durr

In life, we gauge the passage of time in many different ways. We count weeks, months, years, and all those standard measures. But, we also mark milestones, and accomplishments in the passage of time.

For sports fans, there is the rotation of which sport is in season, and what point in the season it is can tell us exactly what time of the year it is. MLB playoffs, NFL just started, and NHL and NBA are warming up: you'd know it's early October. As we follow sports for longer periods, we gauge the passage of time by dynasties (if those even exist anymore), and length of player's careers. 

As someone who has been an engaged sports consumer for close to 15 years now (can't really count the first 10 years of my life as being anything more than a fan), I am just getting to that point where I can see a great player's career from start to finish. I have had tastes of careers that started after I became a full-time sports lover, and ended recently, but it wasn't a player who I was enamored with from start to finish. 

One of the first names that come to mind is LaDainian Tomlinson. (Enjoy the link to highlights of all the greats I mention) He was drafted in 2001, right when I was realizing that I wanted to do something related to sports when I grew up. 

LT had a fantastic career - most touchdowns in a season (31), most points in a single season (186), and so many other scoring records. But, I was on the wrong side of the U.S. for all but those final years when he was in New York. Either way, I enjoyed watching LT play, but he wasn't my favorite player. 

Why am I blabbering on about my nostalgia of seeing an athletes career start to finish? 

Part of it is watching Derek Jeter retire after a 20-year career with one team. I'm not a Yankees fan though, so that doesn't personally touch me like it does many others. 

The reason I'm nostalgic is because I see that one of my favorite players of all-time is closing in on the end of his career. Steve Smith, formerly of the Carolina Panthers, and now with the Baltimore Ravens, is getting into his final years. 

I still remember the first time I really started paying attention to Steve Smith. The 35-year-old, who was drafted in that same 2001 class with LT, was in his second year when he popped onto my radar.

Initially it wasn't for a good reason. Smith got into a fight with teammate Anthony Bright, was suspended a game and cited with a misdemeanor. I knew who he was at this point but that is my earliest memory of him. I turned on SportsCenter after coming home from school one day and there was the story. Something told me to keep paying attention to him when he got back on the field. I think it was that fire and intensity pouring out of him, and the ability to make his small 5'9'' body work like he's 6'6''. He's never taken anything from anyone, and that passion was contagious. 

I followed the Panthers throughout the 2002 and 2003 season and when I watched them in the Super Bowl against New England, I was sold as a Panthers fan for life. 

When Steve Smith retires, I will know a feeling that so many sports fans have had. The feeling of watching your favorite athlete walk off the field for the final time.

Wait!

I've already had my nostalgic moment with Steve Smith. I saw him walk off the field for the last time as a Panther after a NFC Championship loss to the San Francisco 49ers last year. 

It won't be the same when he plays his final game with the Ravens, or another team if he tries to stay around longer. How many of us get to see our favorite player leave from the place we first loved them? 

Jerry Rice? Nope, he went to Oakland, Denver, and Seattle after leaving San Francisco. 

Joe Montana? Nope, he went to Kansas City. 


It seems more often than not, our favorite players depart from where we first loved them before hanging up their cleats, skates, or sneakers. 

I'm not sure how to feel about this. Part of me wants to compare it to breaking up with a girl, then seeing her on the arm of another man. Another part of me feels like I'd rather see them playing in a different city over retiring. 

This is the nature of sports, though. It's ultimately a business. So, finishing where you start isn't always an option. If it isn't the player who wants a change of scenery, it's usually an owner or GM who forces them out. 

Moral of the story, kids?

Appreciate the rare occasions when someone finishes their career with your favorite team. Celebrate everyday that Derek Jeter never put on another team's jersey. Get excited that Mario Lemieux was and will always be a Penguin. Cherish the fact that Larry Bird only donned Green and White as a Celtic. (You can be mad that Larry is now associated with the Pacers if you're a Boston fan, though.)  

One of the coolest things that I got to see growing up was my dad's love of Dan Marino. My dad met him at a football camp in high school. Marino was at Pitt and my dad was playing high school football in Western Pennsylvania.  Fast forward a few years and my dad becomes a Dolphins fan when Marino is drafted there. 

I got to see my dad enjoy watching Marino play on one team for 17 seasons (I was only alive for 8 of those seasons). He saw it from the start to the finish, and became a fan all because of one player. A few years after my dad got to see Marino's final game, I started a similar affinity because of Steve Smith. I found my favorite team because I found my favorite player. Should I be a Ravens fan because he left? No. I'll be a Panthers fan for life because I have that option to stay with one team, and that's something we should appreciate. 

Whether you were a Yankees fan before Jeter, a Dolphins fan before Marino, a Lakers fan before Magic, or you became a Lakers fan because of Kobe, a Steelers fan because of Mean Joe Greene, or whatever reason you like the team you do - enjoy the players who find a way in today's sports market to go through an entire career with one team. Because, before you know it, it's 1999 and that guy you met when you were 17 just played in his final game.

_______________________________________________________________________________________

If you have a nostalgic story of watching your favorite player, share it with us in the comments below.

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and SoundCloud for updates and insight.

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Have a question, guest, or topic you'd like us to cover? Email us: sportsmicSU@gmail.com  

Wednesday, November 5, 2014

Piecing Together the Sports World


A New Beginning


Sports Microcosm was originally created as a blog by Tim Durr to delve deeper into sports than simply talking X's and O's. Now, Sports Microcosm is advancing into a full multimedia experience with a podcast, Twitter, Facebook, and adding another contributor to the process: Jonathan Kahn.

Jonathan is a graduate of SUNY Oswego's Broadcasting and Mass Communication program. He served as in-game host and executive producer of Hockey Night in Oswego for 2 years, interned with Time Warner Cable Sports Channel in Syracuse, NY as well as CNY Central. Jonathan has been a freelance reporter/producer in Syracuse since August of 2012. He is now pursuing a Masters of Science in Broadcast and Digital Journalism at Syracuse University's Newhouse School.

And, in case you forgot about Tim. He is a graduate of Slippery Rock University's Communication program with an emphasis in Journalism. He served as Sports Editor of The Rocket for two years, interned with the Beaver County Times, produced a sports talk show on WSRU-TV, and did play-by-play for Slippery Rock football in 2011. He is now pursuing a Masters of Science in Broadcast and Digital Journalism at Syracuse University's Newhouse School, and interning with the Syracuse Crunch.

The first edition of the podcast will be released Wednesday, Nov. 12, and podcasts will be released each Wednesday.

The blog element of Sports Microcosm will be updated on a regular basis with thoughts, commentary, and used as a more in-depth associate of the podcast element.

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter and SoundCloud for updates and insight.

Individually follow Tim and Jonathan on Twitter, too.

Have a question, guest, or topic you'd like us to cover? Email us: sportsmicSU@gmail.com  

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Expectations Beyond Achievements: The Pittsburgh Penguins

A Year Later, A Round Shorter

It has been five years since the Pittsburgh Penguins won the Stanley Cup. In every year since then, they've lost to a lower seed. After last year, I was the front runner in leading the "let's make major changes" brigade. I didn't want them to bring Fleury back. I said Blysma should be fired. I said we should get rid of Letang, Kunitz, Orpik, Sutter, and so on. A handful of those names I called for played better this time around. Marc-Andre Fleury redeemed himself and played great in the seven wins the Penguins had this post-season. He even played decent in some of the six losses. So, I'll bite the bullet on that one and say Fleury has earned a right to stay. On the other hand, I don't understand how a team with so much talent can struggle so much. An argument can be made that they have the two best players in the NHL. They might have the two best sidekicks to those players also. Though, it didn't look that way for 95 percent of the playoffs. Past knowledge aside, if I was watching these 2014 Stanley Cup playoffs, I'd say that Jussi Jokinen and Brandon Sutter were the two best players for the Penguins. I'd say Crosby looked like a child who didn't get the toy he wanted, and Malkin showed glimpses of greatness, but ultimately just met the bar of what we expected from him. James Neal looked like he didn't understand that the point of the game was to score goals, Chris Kunitz simply filled minutes, Beau Bennett disappeared against the Rangers, and Brian Gibbons was arguably one of the four best players against the Rangers. (Not because he played excellent, but because nobody else showed up.)

After back-to-back Stanley Cup appearances, the Penguins' fans raised the bar. Each year the team has assembled trade deadline deals that made everyone scream for excitement. "Jerome Iginla is the missing piece." It turns out he disrupted chemistry and was forced to play out of his natural position. "Brendan Morrow is a strong presence that we need." It turns out he was underwhelming and didn't accomplish much in the playoffs. "Doug Murray is a defensive stalwart and will secure our defensive pairings." Actually, he's slow and a big ogre. This year it was "Marcel Goc is a solid center and can change games in the faceoff circle." Actually, he got injured and didn't have enough time to get into the system. "Lee Stempniak is going to be the perfect fill-in for Pascal Dupuis." Or he'll get bounced from the first line after about four games and be replaced with Beau Bennett, Brian Gibbons, Evgeni Malkin, Big Bird, Elmo, I think I played a few shifts...okay you get it. The Penguins couldn't figure out which line worked with which players. 

As I rehash the past mistakes and issues that the Penguins have had, I see two things. Bad coaching and bad front office decisions. Now I'm not "in the room" when Bylsma is addressing the team, but I haven't seen much that showed he was really making the right moves to improve this team. There isn't any accountability. There isn't enough determination and discipline. Too many times, I see Evgeni Malkin taking a penalty in the offensive zone. Or, Sidney Crosby gets knocked off his game because he wants to be a physical presence instead of a finesse scorer. James Neal goes and acts like a goon and makes dirty plays, Chris Kunitz seemed to settle into a role that killed his production late in the season and playoffs. Where is the coaching staff that organizes these issues? Everything is too reactionary by the Penguins. Yes, they lost a ridiculous amount of man games this year. Yes, they had a 3-1 lead over the Rangers until a force outside of hockey changed the momentum and will to fight for New York. But, this isn't the first time we've seen this. It's been five years since a Stanley Cup victory and the Penguins have under-performed every season.

"But, it's really hard to get back to the Stanley Cup Finals. In today's age, nobody can have repeated success like this. We should be happy that we've made the playoffs for eight consecutive seasons."

Okay, let's see how Pittsburgh stacks up against the top teams of the past ten years then. Should we be proud of what they accomplished? 

The Boston Bruins have made the playoffs seven consecutive years. They have one Stanley Cup win, and two Stanley Cup appearances, the same as Pittsburgh. They've been bounced in the first round twice in these seven years, Pittsburgh has been bounced in the first round three times. 

The Chicago Blackhawks have made the playoffs six consecutive seasons. They have won two Stanley Cups in their two appearances. They've been bounced in the first round twice, and they are four wins away from reaching their third Stanley Cup Final in five years. 

The Los Angeles Kings have made the playoffs five consecutive seasons. They have won the Stanley Cup once, in their only appearance, and bounced from the first round twice. 

The San Jose Sharks have made 10 consecutive appearances. They have never made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in that time, and were bounced in the first round four times. 

The Detroit Red Wings have made the playoffs 23 straight years. In that time, they've won four Stanley Cups, but i'm only going to mention their last 10 seasons. In those seasons, they've made two Stanley Cup appearances, both against the Penguins and they each won a trophy. They've lost in the first round four times in those 10 years.

From gauging these five teams compared to the Penguins, it seems that Pittsburgh is right on par with the most successful teams of the past 10 years. They have a strong consecutive streak, they won a Stanley Cup, and they've been bounced in the first round about the same or less than the other teams. But is being one of the five best teams for a stretch of 10 years, really enough? Are they actually even one of the best teams?

Since 2008, in the Penguins first Stanley Cup appearance in the past decade, 27 of the 30 NHL teams have made it to at least one playoff appearance. 21 have made two appearances or more. 18 have made three appearances or more. And, exactly 16 have made four appearances or more. So, for the last seven seasons the majority of the playoff field has been the same for the majority of the time. 1/4 of the field has been exactly the same. 1/2 of the field has been the same all but one year, and 3/4 of the field has been the same for five of the seven years. 

The Penguins are part of that 1/4 that has made the playoff every season in the past seven years. The only other teams are Boston, Detroit and San Jose, as mentioned above. Anyone with some hockey knowledge would probably put Anaheim, Chicago and Los Angeles above San Jose though for top teams in recent years as all three have a Stanley Cup win and San Jose doesn't. So, let's get a better gauge of which teams are really the best. Let's give a points system. 1 point for simply making the playoffs, 2 points for advancing 1 round, 4 points for advancing two rounds, 6 points for making the Cup finals, and 10 points for winning a Cup. 

Excluding this current season, the best teams based on this points rating from 2008 are:

Chicago Blackhawks = 55 points (2 Stanley Cup wins, two first round losses, and a third round loss)
Pittsburgh Penguins = 48 points (1 Stanley Cup win, a Finals loss, two first round exits, and a second and third round loss)
Detorit Red Wings = 46 points (1 Stanley Cup win, a Finals loss, three 2nd round exits, and a first round loss)
Boston Bruins = 44 points (1 Stanley Cup win, a Finals loss, two second round losses, one first round exit)

The issue with this ranking is that a large portion of the team, specifically the bottom three lines, have changed a lot since 2008. In the last three seasons, the Penguins have 9 points by this barometer, which is the same as the Canadiens, and less than the Rangers (11), Sharks (11), Canucks (15), Flyers (19), Blackhawks (25), Kings (25), and Bruins (37). 

By the end of the playoffs this year, Pittsburgh will possibly fall even further behind for their performance since 2011. With the talent on the Penguins roster, is it really acceptable to have a team that averages being just inside the top third of teams in the NHL the past three years? 

No. It is completely unacceptable.

Now that we've discussed some metrics for the team's performance since making their first Finals appearance in the past decade, let's look at what they can do now. 

1.) Fire Dan Bylsma.
2.) Fire Ray Shero.
3.) Make some major trades.

After firing Dan Bylsma, there is a perfect selection to replace him. Andy Murray (no not the tennis player). Murray was the head coach with the Los Angeles Kings from 1999 to 2006, then the St. Louis Blues from 2006 to 2010. Since being fired from the Blues, he's been coaching at Western Michigan University. When coaching the Kings, down 3-1 in a playoff series to Colorado, Murray made the announcement that any of his players who weren't giving 100% wouldn't be playing in game 5. The Kings came back to win the next two games and force a game 7. Isn't that exactly what the Penguins need? Haven't we had enough of this lack of accountability, lack of adjustments, and lack of performance from the Penguins.

I'll get deeper into steps two and three of this plan after doing some more research over the next few days.