NFL in LA: How the League Changes

The Backstory

It's an inevitability that the NFL moves, at least one team, back to Los Angeles. Each of the three teams vying for a relocation to LA has previously called the City of Angels its residence. 

The Rams (1946-1994) - The Rams left Cleveland in 1946 after winning the NFL Championship and brought professional football into LA. They saw extreme success in their early seasons there and won seven straight division titles in the late 70s. There were two issues, swept into one, that caused issues with the Rams in LA: location. The Rams played in the LA Memorial Coliseum, the largest stadium in the NFL with 90,000 seats. They could never sell out the stadium, though. This caused blackouts on TV. Also, the stadium's location in South Central LA deterred some from attending games because that area of the city was becoming quickly known for being a dangerous part of town. 

In 1980, the Rams started playing in Anaheim Stadium and as the stadium failed to stay up-to-date with box seats and in-stadium revenue producers, the shopping process started. By 1994, the Rams secured a deal with the city of St. Louis and had a stadium in place to move the team and the Rams have spent the past 21 years in St. Louis. 

The Raiders (1982-1994) - Al Davis took the Oakland Raiders to LA without the consent and votes from the NFL. He had a hairbrained scheme that the NFL was going to move to pay-per-view broadcasts and he would rake in millions from that decision. The NFL never moved that way. Davis moved into the LA Coliseum and kept working on renovations to improve the stadium. Where the Rams couldn't get the renovations needed, the Raiders made strides forward. Once the LA Sports Commission stopped further renovations to the Coliseum, Davis decided to make the move back to Oakland in 1991 and when the Oakland-Alameda County Stadium approved renovations, the move happened in 1994. 

The Chargers (1960) - In one season in Los Angeles, the Chargers went 10-4 and lost in the AFL Championship to Houston before relocating to San Diego the next season. Where the Rams and Raiders built traditions and memories in San Diego, there isn't much memory of the Chargers in LA. The reason for the Chargers looking to leave San Diego is exactly why the Rams and Raiders left LA in the first place, outdated stadiums. 

Current Climate

Each of these three teams has some issues in their current situations. As listed above, the Chargers stadium is highly outdated and has been an issue for the past 10-15 years. There has been little to no progress by officials, owners, and the league to make a new stadium happen in San Diego. It seems like there is no way that the Chargers return to San Diego for the 2016 season.

The Rams have the best current stadium out of the three but since Stan Kroenke purchased the Rams, the talks of their return to Los Angeles started creeping up. With plans of a new stadium in St. Louis falling apart and being deemed unsatisfactory to meet the requirements by the team and league, Los Angeles is a front-runner. 

Most current reports say the Raiders will be on the outside looking in of this relocation. If two teams move and the Raiders are left out, then there will be a reimbursement of sorts for the Raiders. It'll likely come in the form of a guarantee to get a new stadium deal done in Oakland or additional incentive for a future relocation, possibly to San Antonio among some other cities. 

Future Framing of the League

If the Rams move back to Los Angeles, there isn't much of an adjustment for the divisional or conference layouts. The Rams will be closer to all three teams in the NFC West, creating shorter travel time for three games each year. The counter-effect of this is how it creates longer distances for some of the Rams other five road games. Currently, the Rams are much closer to the rest of the league. When they have to play on the East Coast, it's a short trip. The difference should even out most of the time. Next year would be extra travel for the Rams heading to the Southeast for contests against the NFC South. 

Both of the other two teams moving to Los Angeles would be very short trips from their current locations, staying within California. A move by the Chargers or Raiders wouldn't necessitate a divisional realignment. 

The relocation that could cause realignment would be a move by the Raiders and Chargers into the Carson City joint stadium project. This would create two games with the same teams playing each other in the same stadium each season. It would also bring the Chiefs and Broncos to the stadium twice per year. The NFL likely wouldn't want to see two teams in the same division playing in the same stadium. 

If the Chargers and Raiders moved to LA and the Rams didn't, then it would create a situation where a simple conference and division flop between the Rams and Chargers/Raiders would occur. This would put the Rams into the AFC West, which would be more of an AFC Midwest with teams in Kansas City, Denver, and St. Louis. The Raiders or Chargers would move to the NFC West and be in relative proximity to the 49ers, Seahawks, and Cardinals. This would cause a change in division rivalries and be the first changes made since the league realigned conferences in 2002. 

Will the NFL work in LA this time? 

As long as stadiums are built well and maintained then there shouldn't be issues for a team to thrive in the second biggest market in the U.S. The major questions revolve around how much there is to do in LA and if fans will turn out to see a team that isn't successful. All of the potential movers had losing records this season and the Raiders are the only ones who appear to be trending in the right direction. 

It's pretty much a guarantee that the NFL returns to LA in 2016 so all we can do now is wait to see which team(s) it will be and watch the next 10 years to see how popular and successful it is. 

Gary Barnidge: One Year Wonder?

I would like to announce I have signed an extension to remain in Cleveland. Looking forward to years to come. pic.twitter.com/X75uXvggCH

— Gary Barnidge (@garybarnidge) December 10, 2015

By: Tim Durr

Who remembers Patrick Jeffers, Germane Crowell, or Derrick Mayes? Maybe Drew Bennett will ring a bell, no? 

If it was 2001, then you might have a better clue of who some of these guys are. 

They're the equivalent of Vanilla Ice, Devo, Chumbawamba, and Right Said Fred: One Hit Wonders.

The Cleveland Browns announced today that they're giving a contract extension to tight end Gary Barnidge. 

The jury is still out if he'll be a one-hit wonder but he gives many of the signs that say he will.

At age 30, Barnidge spent the first seven seasons of his NFL career being completely irrelevant. After being drafted by the Carolina Panthers in 2008, he went on to post 18 receptions for 320 yards and 1 TD in five seasons. 

Then he went to Cleveland where he spent the next two years compiling 26 catches for 283 yards and 2 TDs. 

In his eighth season in the league, he has finally popped, posting 60 receptions, 817 yards and 7 TDs on an offensively challenged Browns team. He leads the team in catches, touchdowns, and is only 9 yards behind Travis Benjamin for tops in yardage. 

Those numbers are solid, but I have one name I'd like to remind Browns fans of...Peyton Hillis.  

He was taken in that same 2008 draft as Barnidge, he blew up for 11 touchdowns and 1,100 yards rushing in 2010. Then, he didn't break 600 yards the next season and his numbers dipped until this season, when he doesn't have any numbers at all. 

Barnidge might be different but the history of guys having later career breakouts aren't very common in the NFL.

One thing going for Barnidge is that even though his career numbers are low, it's largely because he didn't see many targets. His 93 targets this year are almost 20 more than he had in his entire career.

For the sake of the Browns and Barnidge, hopefully the issue was that he was used too much for blocking and didn't get the chance to show off his receiving skills. 

The details of the deal haven't been announced yet, but if he gets more than a three-year extension, Cleveland is probably once again making an error in their focus as a team. 

It's Cleveland though, that wouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. 

Insight of an Accident: One Year after Cam Newton's Car Crash

The remains of the Toyota Corolla I was driving on June 28, 2013 when I was in a head-on collision. 

By: Tim Durr

Today is the one-year anniversary of Cam Newton's horrific car accident in the shadow of Bank of America Stadium and almost every site that covers the Carolina Panthers has a story on it. 

They range from simply rehashing the events that took place with a few updated quotes sprinkled in, to full blown analysis about how Newton has grown into a better leader and how an event like that changes you. 

I'm not going to take the "how has he become a better leader? did the accident affect that?" approach. It's been worn down and frankly does an injustice to claim he went from inability to lead to great leader because of one event. 

The person you are before an accident is the person who gets through the accident and the one who comes out on the other side.

There aren't many things I have in common with Cam Newton. I mean, other than both being 6'4-ish, Charlotte residents who are strikingly good-looking (hey, i'm trying to be lighthearted before getting into the serious stuff).  

We have both experienced serious car accidents. So, instead of dissecting how the accident changed him, I'm going to focus on my mindset throughout the whole process.

I haven't sat down and picked Cam's brain to see if he feels the same as me but I remember the first time I heard him talk in person during training camp in Spartanburg. Today, he reiterated those things when reflecting on what happened.

It sounded like the type of things that I preached to people after my accident. Talks of enjoying the journey, realizing that it could all be gone in an instance so you have to make every moment the best, and never fearing what is being said around you. 

The thing is, I didn't start telling people about having a proper perspective and living a fulfilling life only after my accident, I did before and so did Newton. 

After a serious accident, or through any trying time in life, you're forced to look in the mirror and make a decision if you're going to give up, or keep fighting through it. 

It also reminds you that we're promised nothing in this life and that it could all be gone in a moment's notice. 

When I heard about Newton's accident a year ago, I immediately thought about the accident I went through 18 months prior. 

I had to rehab for eight months and learn to walk again after fracturing my pelvis in the accident. Like Newton's, my accident was no fault of my own. 

That's probably what made it the hardest to keep the positive attitude and the right perspective. It served as a reminder that you don't have full control of everything, and you shouldn't spend your time worrying about what you can't control. 

You can always control your attitude and your perspective on a situation and while I was relying on doctors, physical therapists, family, and friends, finding a way to stay positive carried me through it all. 

I got through it with their help and during the rehab process I applied to and was accepted at Syracuse University for my Masters degree in Broadcast Journalism.

I likely would have applied to Syracuse and gone through the process without the accident occurring because an accident isn't a person-changing event, it's a life-changing event. 

I'm still the same person I was before the accident happened. Only, I'm a little more focused on enjoying life and cherishing each opportunity that I have.

That's exactly what Newton is doing, too. It's evidenced by his outstanding fourth-quarter performance this year and the extra dabs we see each Sunday. 

Let's leave the talk about Cam being a leader at the door. He was a leader before the accident and is a leader now, a few years of maturity to go from age 22 to 26 helped him grow as a leader, not a car accident.

Instead, let's understand why he has so much fun on the field, and why the car accident did nothing but accentuate the traits he already possessed.

He's having fun with life and enjoying every moment of it. A major car accident and an understanding of the fragility of life only serve as a reminder to raise the enjoyment of life a few notches on the priority list.

While you're chasing whatever goal you set in front of yourself, whether it's going to grad school or winning a Super Bowl, when you have hurdles to jump and mountains to climb along the way, remember this: "Never Forget the Journey". 

The End to a Super-Duper Career

By: Tim Durr

He was an afterthought in the 2008 blockbuster deal when the Pittsburgh Penguins sent fan favorites Colby Armstrong and Erik Christensen, along with touted prospect Angelo Esposito, and a first round pick to Atlanta for Marian Hossa.

He was the other piece of the trade, Pascal Dupuis. That's how it read in most articles. The Penguins trade all these guys for Hossa, oh and they got this Dupuis guy, too.

That treatment fit how Dupuis handled himself in the next seven seasons with the Penguins. Never garnering headlines, always doing the dirty work, and coming out of nowhere to shine next to Sidney Crosby. 

If someone said a winger from that trade will play with Crosby for seven years, fans would have rejoiced that Hossa signed long-term. They didn't know it then, but what ended up happening was exactly what should have.

Hossa quickly moved on at the end of the season for more money and Dupuis raised his hand and said, "I'm still here". 

A little less than three months from the seven-year anniversary of that trade and Dupuis once again spoke up. 

This time he announced that he'd no longer be here, at least not on the ice. After battling with blood clots for much of the last two seasons and missing long-stretches of games, Dupuis decided to end his hockey career. 

As a fan of hockey and a Pittsburgh-native, it's been fun watching you play Duper. Take care of your health and enjoy life after the NHL. 

Jimmy Clausen: The Worst of the Best

By: Tim Durr

He sits on the bench, holding a clipboard, talking to everyone who will listen. He sits down with the starter and points out something he noticed in coverage earlier. It's all good. Then, the starter gets hurt and he has to take the field. The fans gasp, it's the worst backup QB in the league: Jimmy Clausen. 

A bit harsh?

His numbers don't exactly deny that statement. After Clausen threw three touchdowns and nine interceptions in 10 starts in 2010 in Carolina, it seemed like he'd quickly join the ranks of immediate busts who wash out of the league, ex: JaMarcus Russell. 

It didn't happen, though. It's been five years since that dreadful season and Clausen has only added two touchdown passes and two INTs to his career totals in six games with the Bears. 

When the Bears released him a few weeks ago after he filled in for a game-and-a-half when Jay Cutler was down, it seemed like Clausen's career might finally be done. He's a young, well-spoken guy and there are 120 sports networks out there looking for "analysts", I was sure he'd be fine. 

Instead of hanging up the jersey, Clausen got a call from the Ravens and could actually start this weekend against the Seahawks. It'd be his second start against Seattle this year. He went 9-for-17 for 63 yards in the first contest. Yes, 63 yards. 

Why would a team take a chance on a guy like Clausen after he has been atrocious his entire career? He hasn't shown a glimpse or spark or anything to say he'll turn into a serviceable QB. 

Let's stop and think about that. Ryan Mallett, Tim Tebow, Ryan Lindley, and Josh Freeman are all available options. All of those guys were with teams in training camp this off-season but now they're unemployed, and they continue to stay unemployed. Every year a swarm of great college QBs enter the NFL draft and most of them are gone before you even knew they had a chance. 

Let reality sink in. The gap between the worst NFL QB and the next best available is larger than you realize. Plus, it isn't solely about what you can do on the field when you're being hired as a backup. 

Clausen's career numbers are nothing special at all. He has a 53.2 completion percentage, which would have been phenomenal if this was 1978. In 2015, if you're under 60 percent then you might get the label of being slightly inaccurate, ex: Cam Newton and Eli Manning. 

There doesn't seem to be any reason to give Clausen another chance in the NFL after six years of under-performing everywhere he's stopped. The chances keep coming because being a backup QB isn't strictly about on-field performance.

Clausen is a Notre Dame guy, which insinuates he's probably pretty smart. He also stays low-key for the most part. There are a ton of duties bestowed to a backup QB in the league and having a guy who can handle all of that helps out every position on the team. 

Toss his 1-12 record as a starter aside, forget about his 60.1 passer rating, eight career fumbles, and the fact that he averages 103.4 yards/game in his career. 

When you bash Jimmy Clausen, it's like making fun of the millionaire with the least money. He's done enough to make $1,000,000.01 so don't act like you're a better QB than Clausen from your armchair, you're not. 

Even if you played four years at a Division I college and threw for a couple thousand yards, Clausen did that, too, in the eyes of the elite, that doesn't mean anything.

So, while we have the argument about which QBs in the NFL are elite, just remember, they all are. 

The difference between my talent and Jimmy Clausen's happens to be the same gap between him and Tom Brady, though. 

NFL Monday: How the Playoff Picture is Forming

 

By: Tim Durr

As the NFL owns sports on Sunday, the NFL will largely rule Monday on Sports Microcosm. Who am I kidding, the NFL rules sports 96 percent of the time. Monday will be almost strictly focused on the NFL, unless something groundbreaking happens in another sport. 

Expect what follows to be the typical look of Monday blogs and stay tuned for the podcast later that will go more in-depth on specifics. 

Third Time's a Charm

It took a late fourth down conversion between Cam Newton and Greg Olsen for the Panthers to keep a game-winning drive alive that ended in a touchdown pass to Jerricho Cotchery to beat the Saints, 41-38. 

The Panthers won a third-straight NFC South title before the game even started when Atlanta fell to Tampa Bay. Now at 12-0, the Panthers are four games away from making history as the first NFC team to go 16-0 in a season. Check out the Black and Blue Review for all the latest information on the Panthers.

Rise From the Ashes

The Seahawks have struggled this season, the defense has given up fourth quarter leads, and Richard Sherman has been targeted regularly, but over the past three weeks, they have found their form.

Minnesota posted only 125 net yards (lowest in the NFL this season) in the 38-7 demolition the Seahawks put on the Vikings. And today, everyone is talking about the Seahawks as a possible Super Bowl contender who has climbed back into the playoff race. 

A playoff spot is quite feasible for the Seahawks, who face the Ravens, Browns and Rams before a Week 17 showdown against Arizona. That sets Seattle up for a likely 10-6 finish, which should be enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard. 

We Don't Want to Win

In 10 of 12 games this season, the New York Giants (5-7) have led in the final two minutes of play. They're 5-5 in those contests and blew another fourth quarter lead on Sunday. This one was a 20-10 lead over the Jets that turned into a 23-20 OT loss. 

At the start of the 2015 season, the New York Giants had only lost six games which they gave up a fourth quarter lead since 2011. This year they're already at five losses after blowing leads. All five of those losses coming in the final two minutes of play. 

The Giants close the season against Miami, Carolina, Minnesota and Philadelphia. Three of those four teams look clearly capable of beating the G-Men. 

If the Redskins win tonight, they'll have a one-game NFC East lead with Chicago, Buffalo, Philadelphia, and Dallas remaining on the schedule. Moral of the story - nothing in the East is close to being figured out, but that's largely because the Giants can't close opponents out. 

Wide Open South

The Houston Texans lost to the Buffalo Bills and gave the Indianapolis Colts a great opening to take control of the division, then Indy got blown out by the Steelers, 45-10. The Jaguars and Titans played one of the most exciting games of the day, but with Tennessee pulling out the win, it made it more of a two-team race for the division over a three-team battle. All four teams technically have a shot, though. 

All of the AFC South has a negative point differential with Houston (-11) posting the best +/- ratio. The Colts and Texans play each other in two weeks and have to face the Jaguars and Titans, too. Their remaining non-AFC South opponent might make the difference. The Texans play Sunday night against New England and the Colts play the Dolphins. 

If Andrew Luck comes back in Week 15 against Houston and the Colts are 7-6 with a one-game lead over the Texans, then the Colts should find themselves in the playoffs as a 9-7 AFC South winner. 

Another Chip on the Shoulder 

Carson Palmer hasn't taken the field in the playoffs since 2009 and was largely written off as an unfortunate injury hampering his career. Again last season, injuries kept him from appearing in the playoffs. Now, his team is 10-2 and he's four games away from finally getting back to the playoffs after a 7-year absence. 

As the Cardinals easily handled the St. Louis Rams, all of the attention turned to division foe Seattle and their big win, once again adding to the chip on Palmer's shoulder. 

Arizona has four tough contests remaining (Minnesota, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Seattle) and hold a three-game lead over the Seahawks for the NFC West. It'd take a lot to fall out of that second NFC playoff spot, and if Palmer is healthy, it doesn't look like he'll allow that to happen. 

Roaring Lions

I have a bold prediction..okay, it could be bolder, but it's at least italicized and underlined. The Detroit Lions will win out and finish 8-8. 

They'll still miss the playoffs, but they will have ended the season 7-1 after starting it 1-7. That turnaround will keep Matthew Stafford in Detroit and allow the team to continue building in the right direction for the future. Stafford will turn 28 years old on Super Bowl Sunday, he has at least six to eight good seasons of football left in the tank and it'd be a huge error for the Lions to get rid of him.

Hot Take of the Day: The refs cost the Lions a playoff berth with the Seattle batted ball play, and the phantom facemask on Aaron Rodgers.

Breaking Down the NFL's Parity

By: Tim Durr

Every game is highly contested, the outcome in the air until the final buzzer, a new front-runner shows its face, and the league is filled with parity.

There’s that word again. Parity. All sports leagues claim they have it or they’re working hard to get to it. 

This year the NFL has been an abyss of mediocrity with a few gems sprinkled through. Sorry, I mean, a fierce competition that leaves me holding my breath for which 5-6 team will make the playoffs (with a losing record). 

Those are the hot takes. That's what you regularly hear. Either the NFL is the best it has ever been because everyone can win any given Sunday, or it's a down year because nobody is consistent enough outside of New England and Carolina. 

The truth is that this isn't any outlier from what we've seen for the past 10 years. The NFL has its same cast list. The majority of teams are operating very similar to how they have year-by-year, only a few have been re-cast into an unfamiliar role. 

Carolina has become the underdog that never gets respected. The odds-makers in Vegas chose a 3-win team as a favorite over them.  

New England keeps its role as a perennial powerhouse with a history of edging around the rules making them a clear villain. 

Arizona is the second chance story. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald both past their prime are two key components of the best offense in the league.

There are a ton of role players like Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Denver all adding provocative story lines like Andy Dalton finally becoming elite, Teddy Bridgewater arriving as a star, and if Peyton Manning will play again.

Add a mix of former powerhouses that have struggled this season and you have the makeup for one hell of a show. The Seahawks and Packers have been up and down all season. Everyone on the Ravens and Chargers has been injured. Compelling story lines abound.

Historical Com-Parity

There was a chart going around the internet recently that showed the mode (number that appears most often) was down about a win compared to the last several years. Most people are chalking this up to added parity in the league this year. I was a bit skeptical that the NFL actually strayed very far from its usual level of parity so I decided to do some of my own research of the past 10 seasons.

Before getting lost in the chart below, here are the averages of what those numbers say: Over the past 10 seasons, the worst division champ finishes with 8.4 wins. This year the Giants and Redskins are projecting toward seven or eight wins, right on par for the champ of the worst division.

The number of teams who are average (between 7-9 wins) per season is 11.5. This year looks about the same. Based on win percentage there should be 13 teams between seven and nine wins in 2015. If someone has a late surge or flop, it could easily be right at the average.

The biggest difference, unless the Browns and Titans lose out, is that we will have the highest win total by the worst team in the league for the first time in 13 seasons. Nobody has finished 32nd in the league with a better win total than 2-14 since the San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Giants all finished 4-12 in 2003. 

NFL Record Stats 2006-15
Create column charts

As you look at it year-by-year since 2006, it seems like the NFL has its form set in place pretty well. About one-third of the league finishes near .500, a little less than half the league finishes with a winning record (13.6 teams), and one team donates about 14 wins to the rest of the league in return for the top draft pick.

A Hybrid Form

The NFL has created a hybrid form of parity. About six teams have failed to be competitive the last 10 years (Browns, Rams, Lions, Raiders, Titans and Jaguars). Add in a rotation of about five more teams who haven't been able to find much success (Buccaneers, Redskins, Dolphins, Bills, and Chiefs) and there is a third of the league that usually wins 7 games or less.

Next is the mix of teams that have hung around 8-8 or had some big ups-and-downs since 2006. There’s another third of the league (Vikings, Jets, Texans, Bears, Falcons, Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Chargers, Cardinals, and Cowboys). 

These teams have climbed as high as winning Super Bowls and making the playoffs steadily in the past 10 seasons, but they’ve also drafted high and been through rebuilding periods.

The final third of the league consists of the upper echelon. The teams that are finishing almost every season with winning records and constantly in playoff contention. Note: several are having down years in 2015. (Saints, Ravens, and 49ers). The rest are still solidly in playoff races (Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Packers, Steelers, Broncos, and Seahawks).

NFL Caste System

If we break up the NFL into a caste system, you’ll see that only a few teams each year make any significant departure from their tier.

Baltimore, New Orleans and San Francisco have fallen from NFL royalty and dropped out of the top-tier this year. Green Bay, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle have dipped some but still have five weeks to rebound, and are all in playoff contention with good odds to play into January.

The middle class of the NFL have seen two teams (Panthers and Cardinals) move into nicer subdivisions with maids and pool boys in 2015. Hopefully they can afford that mortgage. The rest of the group is pretty much average, outside of the Vikings who are looking for a house in that nice neighborhood and the Cowboys who appear to be victims of gentrification. Though values haven’t risen too high in the NFC East around them yet.

The basement of the league is split in half. We have the basement teams who eat Doritos and play Fallout 4 for 11 hours a day, I’m looking at you Cleveland. And, the basement teams who are 24, have a job but don’t make enough to pay off that college loan debt and rent an apartment. You’ll get there eventually Buffalo.

The NFL has formed a core of teams that lurk around the middle with a handful that stay successful while others constantly finish at the bottom of the pile. It isn't pure parity, but does anybody really want to see almost every team finishing between six and 10 wins? 

What's the difference between the teams at the top and the ones who never make it out of the cellar? Quarterback play. I might have a few thoughts to say on that topic in the coming days.