Breaking Down the NFL's Parity

By: Tim Durr

Every game is highly contested, the outcome in the air until the final buzzer, a new front-runner shows its face, and the league is filled with parity.

There’s that word again. Parity. All sports leagues claim they have it or they’re working hard to get to it. 

This year the NFL has been an abyss of mediocrity with a few gems sprinkled through. Sorry, I mean, a fierce competition that leaves me holding my breath for which 5-6 team will make the playoffs (with a losing record). 

Those are the hot takes. That's what you regularly hear. Either the NFL is the best it has ever been because everyone can win any given Sunday, or it's a down year because nobody is consistent enough outside of New England and Carolina. 

The truth is that this isn't any outlier from what we've seen for the past 10 years. The NFL has its same cast list. The majority of teams are operating very similar to how they have year-by-year, only a few have been re-cast into an unfamiliar role. 

Carolina has become the underdog that never gets respected. The odds-makers in Vegas chose a 3-win team as a favorite over them.  

New England keeps its role as a perennial powerhouse with a history of edging around the rules making them a clear villain. 

Arizona is the second chance story. Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald both past their prime are two key components of the best offense in the league.

There are a ton of role players like Cincinnati, Minnesota, and Denver all adding provocative story lines like Andy Dalton finally becoming elite, Teddy Bridgewater arriving as a star, and if Peyton Manning will play again.

Add a mix of former powerhouses that have struggled this season and you have the makeup for one hell of a show. The Seahawks and Packers have been up and down all season. Everyone on the Ravens and Chargers has been injured. Compelling story lines abound.

Historical Com-Parity

There was a chart going around the internet recently that showed the mode (number that appears most often) was down about a win compared to the last several years. Most people are chalking this up to added parity in the league this year. I was a bit skeptical that the NFL actually strayed very far from its usual level of parity so I decided to do some of my own research of the past 10 seasons.

Before getting lost in the chart below, here are the averages of what those numbers say: Over the past 10 seasons, the worst division champ finishes with 8.4 wins. This year the Giants and Redskins are projecting toward seven or eight wins, right on par for the champ of the worst division.

The number of teams who are average (between 7-9 wins) per season is 11.5. This year looks about the same. Based on win percentage there should be 13 teams between seven and nine wins in 2015. If someone has a late surge or flop, it could easily be right at the average.

The biggest difference, unless the Browns and Titans lose out, is that we will have the highest win total by the worst team in the league for the first time in 13 seasons. Nobody has finished 32nd in the league with a better win total than 2-14 since the San Diego Chargers, Arizona Cardinals, and New York Giants all finished 4-12 in 2003. 

NFL Record Stats 2006-15
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As you look at it year-by-year since 2006, it seems like the NFL has its form set in place pretty well. About one-third of the league finishes near .500, a little less than half the league finishes with a winning record (13.6 teams), and one team donates about 14 wins to the rest of the league in return for the top draft pick.

A Hybrid Form

The NFL has created a hybrid form of parity. About six teams have failed to be competitive the last 10 years (Browns, Rams, Lions, Raiders, Titans and Jaguars). Add in a rotation of about five more teams who haven't been able to find much success (Buccaneers, Redskins, Dolphins, Bills, and Chiefs) and there is a third of the league that usually wins 7 games or less.

Next is the mix of teams that have hung around 8-8 or had some big ups-and-downs since 2006. There’s another third of the league (Vikings, Jets, Texans, Bears, Falcons, Giants, Eagles, Panthers, Chargers, Cardinals, and Cowboys). 

These teams have climbed as high as winning Super Bowls and making the playoffs steadily in the past 10 seasons, but they’ve also drafted high and been through rebuilding periods.

The final third of the league consists of the upper echelon. The teams that are finishing almost every season with winning records and constantly in playoff contention. Note: several are having down years in 2015. (Saints, Ravens, and 49ers). The rest are still solidly in playoff races (Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Packers, Steelers, Broncos, and Seahawks).

NFL Caste System

If we break up the NFL into a caste system, you’ll see that only a few teams each year make any significant departure from their tier.

Baltimore, New Orleans and San Francisco have fallen from NFL royalty and dropped out of the top-tier this year. Green Bay, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Seattle have dipped some but still have five weeks to rebound, and are all in playoff contention with good odds to play into January.

The middle class of the NFL have seen two teams (Panthers and Cardinals) move into nicer subdivisions with maids and pool boys in 2015. Hopefully they can afford that mortgage. The rest of the group is pretty much average, outside of the Vikings who are looking for a house in that nice neighborhood and the Cowboys who appear to be victims of gentrification. Though values haven’t risen too high in the NFC East around them yet.

The basement of the league is split in half. We have the basement teams who eat Doritos and play Fallout 4 for 11 hours a day, I’m looking at you Cleveland. And, the basement teams who are 24, have a job but don’t make enough to pay off that college loan debt and rent an apartment. You’ll get there eventually Buffalo.

The NFL has formed a core of teams that lurk around the middle with a handful that stay successful while others constantly finish at the bottom of the pile. It isn't pure parity, but does anybody really want to see almost every team finishing between six and 10 wins? 

What's the difference between the teams at the top and the ones who never make it out of the cellar? Quarterback play. I might have a few thoughts to say on that topic in the coming days.